⚡ Last Updated: 2026-11-14

Welcome to Trade Bee: Empirical Strategy Insights

Data-driven results from 117,915+ backtest batches (273.79M+ total runs) across 27 leveraged ETF pairs and 11 strategy modes. Read Full Research & Commentary →

📊 Research Hub

🚀 Quick Start: What Works Best?

Based on 273.79M+ simulation runs and 11-strategy sweep completions across 15+ years of market data (2011–2026).

If you are looking for immediate direction, our empirical backtests point to these top strategy choices:

Goal Top Recommendation Recommended Mode Why? Expected Performance
#1 Primary Automated Execution SOXL / SOXS or WEBL / WEBS ml Dominant trade quality leader: lowest adverse excursion (0.363 MAE) and sustained 15-year alpha.
0.357 – 0.477 MAE (Ideal < 0.50)
2.48 – 4.17 bps/hr (Capital Velocity)
258.32% Ann. ROI (15-Yr SOXL Benchmark)
#1 Zero-Dependency Benchmark TQQQ / SQQQ, URTY / SRTY, or NAIL / DRN confluence Highest out-of-sample win rate with low drawdown & deterministic logic (no ML models required).
61.6% (0d) / 100.0% (31d) Active Win Rate
2.47 – 3.21 bps/hr (Velocity)
143.12% Ann. ROI (31d Hold Across 27 Pairs)
Fine-Tuned Parameter Baseline GUSH / DRIP, NAIL / DRN, or SOXL / SOXS static Exhaustive parameter sweep yields top unrestricted velocity and high win rate on benchmark pairs.
109.53% (31d) – 271.58% (0d) Avg Ann. ROI
1.42 – 2.31 bps/hr (Capital Velocity)
89.1% – 92.8% Win Rate (704 Windows Across All 27 Pairs)
Capital Velocity Leaders WEBL / WEBS (Internet 3x) or JNUG / JDST ml Fastest capital recycling with highest realized basis points per hour of market exposure.
3.16 – 4.17 bps/hr (Capital Velocity)
198% – 234% Ann. ROI
Compliance 31-Day Band Capture SOXL / SOXS or BOIL / KOLD bollinger / rsi Extracts maximum statistical band expansion under 31-day holding constraints; +337% ROI surge over 0d.
119.60% Bollinger / 77.79% RSI Ann. ROI
95.5% – 95.6% Peak Reversion Capture
Hands-Off Compliance Auto-Opt SOXL / SOXS or JNUG / JDST dynamic Autonomous rolling recalibration (DL 21/42); 702-window 15-yr screening across all 27 pairs completed; 26 pairs OOS-verified & promoted.
33.40% – 72.71% Ann. ROI (31d Hold, dl 21, df 10)
55.8% – 68.3% Win Rate (702 Windows / SOXL 68.3%)
43.5% OOS Stability Pass Rate (1,219 Finalists)
High-Beta Volatility Harvesting SOXL / SOXS or FNGU / FNGD auto-2 Composite multi-objective ranking (win rate, Sharpe, profit factor, max DD); cuts drawdowns in half; 15-year 27-pair sweep complete.
10.72% – 21.13% Ann. ROI (31d Hold Across 27 Pairs)
53.8% – 70.0% Win Rate (31d Hold / SOXL 70.0%)
43.9% OOS Stability Pass Rate
Cyclical Wave Arbitrage 00631L / 00632R or TECL / TECS fft Filters price noise and trades dominant cycle harmonic wave troughs in tech index pairs.
52.19% – 63.14% Ann. ROI (FFT Top)
91.6% Win Rate (FFT Aggregate)
🏆

The Winning Strategy & Revised Recommendation

Empirical evaluation across 273.79M+ simulation runs, 912,000+ walk-forward OOS verifications, and all 11 strategy modes confirms Machine Learning (ml mode) as our #1 Primary Overall Recommendation. Verified across 15 years of rolling 188-day windows (258.32% Avg Ann. ROI, 81.5% Active Win Rate on SOXL/SOXS), ML is the only strategy to achieve the ideal MAE Efficiency target (0.391 median MAE vs > 1.10 for technical oscillators), entering at true exhaustion turning points rather than catching falling knives, while delivering the highest Capital Velocity (2.48 bps/hr overall, up to 4.17 bps/hr on WEBL/WEBS) and an 83.9% closed-trade win rate. Confluence mode (Bollinger Bands + RSI) remains our #1 Zero-Dependency / Rule-Based Benchmark for deterministic execution without external model dependencies, achieving 143.12% Avg Ann. ROI, 95.6% window win rate, and a flawless 100.0% active win rate under 15-year 31-day compliance evaluation across all 27 pairs (704 windows total, 17.78M runs). Fine-tuned Static mode delivers 109.53% Avg Ann. ROI under 31-day compliance hold across all 704 evaluation windows (completed across the entire 27-pair universe in sweep_static_part1.db + sweep_static_part2.db) and dominates active 0-day unrestricted trading (271.58% Ann. ROI, 2.03 bps/hr velocity, 83.3% win rate), while Bollinger mode surges to 103.11% Ann. ROI under 31-day compliance rules across all 27 pairs (100.0% active win rate). Dedicated Dynamic mode provides autonomous regime adaptation under 31-day holding (702 rolling windows across 15 years completed with 33.40% Mean Ann. ROI on optimal dl=21, df=10, peaking at 72.71% ROI / 68.3% win rate on SOXL/SOXS and 26 pairs OOS-verified & promoted), while Auto-2 mode delivers 15-year multi-strategy composite rotation (10.72% Mean Ann. ROI across 704 windows, up to 21.13% on SOXL/SOXS and 16.29% on FNGU/FNGD).

📊 Performance Highlights

Aggregated from 27 ETF pairs across 11 completed strategy modes (comparing 0-Day vs 31-Day Minimum Holding Constraints).

Strategy Mode Empirical Performance (0-Day vs 31-Day Hold)

Annualized ROI (%) & Win Rate (%) Split by Minimum Holding Days (0 vs 31) across Strategies
*Note: Dynamic mode values incorporate 702 total evaluated windows across 2,808 runs spanning 15 years (2011–2026 in sweep_dynamic.db), achieving 33.40% Mean Annualized ROI (dl 21, df 10) with 26 pairs verified and promoted to production best_params.json under 31-day compliance constraints. All other strategy modes reflect 1,401+ multi-year rolling windows spanning 2011–2026.
#1 Entry Precision (MAE)

Machine Learning (`ml`) Mode

The only strategy achieving ideal entry precision (0.391 median MAE); 15-year SOXL benchmark delivers 258.32% Ann. ROI & 81.5% Win Rate.

0-Day Unrestricted Leader

Fine-Tuned Static Mode

Dominates active daily trading with 271.58% Avg Ann. ROI, 83.3% Win Rate, and 2.03 bps/hr capital velocity.

Flawless 100% Win Rate

SOXL / SOXS Benchmark Pair

Achieved 100.0% Win Rate (20/20 wins) and 304.63% Avg Ann. ROI across all 10 September 2026 sweeps.

31-Day Compliance Surges

Bollinger & RSI Band Capture

Forced 31-day holding surges returns by 3x–8x (119.60% Bollinger, 77.79% RSI) with 95.6% Peak Reversion Capture.

⚠️ Financial Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Leveraged ETFs involve significant risk.

⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITY Action Required

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  1. No Financial Advice — The content, trade signals, analysis, and information provided by Trade Bee (the "Service") are for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in the Service constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The signals provided are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific asset. Trading and investing involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
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⚙️ How It Works

Trade Bee automates long-short equity strategies using a FastAPI + Celery architecture.

01

Data Ingestion

We analyze historical price data for 27 major leveraged ETF pairs.

02

Strategy Execution

Runs 11 distinct strategies (confluence, dynamic, fft, trend, rsi, spread, ml, etc.) across rolling 188-day windows.

03

Validation

Every strategy undergoes out-of-sample benchmarking to prevent overfitting.

04

Real-Time Tracking

Monitor live batch progress and historical results via our dashboard.

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