⚡ Last Updated: 2026-09-13

Welcome to Trade Bee: Empirical Strategy Insights

Data-driven results from 46,627+ backtest batches (106.85M+ total runs) across 18 leveraged ETF pairs and 11 strategy modes. Read Full Research & Commentary →

📊 Research Hub

🚀 Quick Start: What Works Best?

Based on 106.8M+ simulation runs and 11-strategy sweep completions (Sep 2026).

If you are looking for immediate direction, our empirical backtests point to these top strategy choices:

Goal Top Recommendation Recommended Mode Why? Expected Performance
#1 Primary Automated Execution SOXL / SOXS or WEBL / WEBS ml Dominant trade quality leader: lowest adverse excursion (0.363 MAE) and highest capital velocity.
0.363 – 0.477 MAE (Ideal < 0.50)
2.48 – 4.17 bps/hr (Capital Velocity)
80.0% – 88.4% Closed Win Rate
#1 Zero-Dependency Benchmark TQQQ / SQQQ or UPRO / SPXU confluence Highest out-of-sample win rate with low drawdown & deterministic logic (no ML models required).
61.6% Closed Win Rate (0d)
2.69 bps/hr (0d Velocity)
93.3% Historical Win Rate
Fine-Tuned Parameter Baseline SOXL / SOXS or BOIL / KOLD static Exhaustive coarse-to-fine parameter sweep yields strong capital velocity and 100% window stability.
72.74% – 142.11% Avg Ann. ROI
1.09 – 2.31 bps/hr (Capital Velocity)
100.0% Top Window Win Rate
Capital Velocity Leaders WEBL / WEBS (Internet 3x) or JNUG / JDST ml Fastest capital recycling with highest realized basis points per hour of market exposure.
3.16 – 4.17 bps/hr (Capital Velocity)
198% – 234% Ann. ROI
Compliance 31-Day Band Capture BOIL / KOLD or TMF / TMV bollinger / rsi Extracts maximum statistical band expansion under 31-day holding constraints without premature exit.
95.5% – 95.6% Peak Reversion Capture
10.07% – 175% Ann. ROI
Hands-Off Compliance Auto-Opt TECL / TECS or JNUG / JDST dynamic Autonomous rolling recalibration (DL 21/42); beats static on 7 pairs with 94.4% 31d compliance win rate.
57.16% Ann. ROI (31d Hold)
94.4% Win Rate (17/18 Pairs Positive)
0.95 bps/hr (Capital Velocity)
High-Beta Volatility Harvesting SOXL / SOXS or LABU / LABD auto Cross-strategy dynamic rotation; up to 334% Ann. ROI on LABU/LABD with 88.9%* 0d win rate.
96.01% Ann. ROI (0d) / 25.65% (31d)
88.9%* (0d) / 72.2%* (31d Win Rate)
Cyclical Wave Arbitrage 00631L / 00632R or TECL / TECS fft Filters price noise and trades dominant cycle harmonic wave troughs in tech index pairs.
63.14% Ann. ROI (FFT Top)
91.6% Win Rate (FFT Aggregate)
🏆

The Winning Strategy & Revised Recommendation

Empirical evaluation with new mean-reversion KPIs (MAE Efficiency, Peak Reversion Capture, Capital Velocity) across 3,380,751 simulation runs and all 10 strategy modes confirms Machine Learning (ml mode) as our #1 Primary Overall Recommendation. It is the only strategy to achieve the ideal MAE Efficiency target (0.391 median MAE vs > 1.10 for technical oscillators), entering at true exhaustion turning points rather than catching falling knives, while delivering the highest Capital Velocity (2.48 bps/hr overall, up to 4.17 bps/hr on WEBL/WEBS) and an 83.9% closed-trade win rate. Confluence mode (Bollinger Bands + RSI) remains our #1 Zero-Dependency / Rule-Based Benchmark for deterministic execution without external model dependencies, achieving 61.6% closed win rate and 2.69 bps/hr capital velocity under 0-day hold. Fine-tuned Static mode delivers strong baseline execution under 0-day hold (142.11% Ann. ROI, 2.31 bps/hr velocity, 100% window win rate), while dedicated Dynamic mode is elevated to a primary co-recommendation for 31-day compliance trading (94.4% win rate, 57.16% Ann. ROI, 0.95 bps/hr velocity with DL 21/42), outperforming static on 7 pairs without requiring manual parameter tables.

📊 Performance Highlights

Aggregated from 18 ETF pairs across 11 completed strategy modes (comparing 0-Day vs 31-Day Minimum Holding Constraints).

Strategy Mode Empirical Performance (0-Day vs 31-Day Hold)

Annualized ROI (%) & Win Rate (%) Split by Minimum Holding Days (0 vs 31) across Strategies
*Note: Dynamic mode values incorporate 72 total evaluated windows across 327K+ runs (54 multi-quarter rolling windows from 2024–2026 across 245,430 runs in out.08-19, plus 18 single-window baseline runs), achieving an 88.89%* Top Window Win Rate (48/54 positive windows across all 18 pairs) and 123.03%* Top Annualized ROI under 31-day compliance constraints. All other strategy modes reflect 1,401+ multi-year rolling windows spanning 2011–2026.
#1 Entry Precision (MAE)

Machine Learning (`ml`) Mode

The only strategy achieving ideal entry precision (0.391 median MAE vs 1.22+ for oscillators), eliminating knife-catching drawdown.

Capital Velocity Leaders

WEBL / WEBS & JNUG / JDST

Highest realized return per unit of exposure time (3.16 – 4.17 bps/hr, 80% – 88% Closed Win Rate) under ml execution.

Zero-Dependency Benchmark

TQQQ / SQQQ & SOXL / SOXS

Deterministic rule benchmark under confluence mode with 61.6% closed-trade win rate and 2.69 bps/hr 0-day velocity.

Most Stable Anchor

TYD / TYO & UPRO / SPXU

Provides the highest window stability (88% – 99.3% Win Rate) with ultra-low adverse excursion (0.096 – 0.347 MAE).

⚠️ Financial Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Leveraged ETFs involve significant risk.

⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITY Action Required

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  1. No Financial Advice — The content, trade signals, analysis, and information provided by Trade Bee (the "Service") are for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in the Service constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The signals provided are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific asset. Trading and investing involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
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⚙️ How It Works

Trade Bee automates long-short equity strategies using a FastAPI + Celery architecture.

01

Data Ingestion

We analyze historical price data for 18 major leveraged ETF pairs.

02

Strategy Execution

Runs 11 distinct strategies (confluence, dynamic, fft, trend, rsi, spread, ml, etc.) across rolling 188-day windows.

03

Validation

Every strategy undergoes out-of-sample benchmarking to prevent overfitting.

04

Real-Time Tracking

Monitor live batch progress and historical results via our dashboard.

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